DEBATE: DO WE NEED MORE TROOPS OR MORE TECHNOLOGY?
By Grp Capt Sadeeq Shehu (rtd)
Technology Alone Will Not Save Nigeria — We Need More Troops, and We Need Them Now
As our Senate suddenly woke up and only now realised we need more troops they are asking for 100,000 more. Even among military officers there is a raging debate: Some like me say we need more troops. Others say we dont need troops what we need is technology . So on tv or in whatsapp groups one hears: “Nigeria doesn’t need more soldiers; Nigeria needs technology.”
It sounds modern.
It sounds intelligent.
It is wrong.
This week, the Senate suddenly “woke up” and demanded 100,000 additional troops, while the Chief of Army Staff announced plans to recruit 24,000 more. Predictably, debate erupted again — even among retired and serving officers.
As someone guided by evidence, comparative experience, and operational realities, I am firmly on the side of increasing troop strength.
Here is why.
1. The Harsh Mathematics: Quinlévan’s Troop-Density Rule
Counter-insurgency (COIN) is not poetry.
It is arithmetic. The Quinlévan Rule after studying hundreds of insurgencies recommends:
20–25 security personnel per 1,000 population
to hold territory, protect civilians, and defeat insurgents.
Apply that to Nigeria:
NW + NC + NE population: 90–100 million
Required COIN force: 1.8–2.5 million
Now look at what we have:
Approximately 250,000 military personnel (Army, Navy, Air Force combined)
Even if you add overstretched police, NSCDC, vigilantes, CJTF and hunters, we are nowhere near the minimum troop density required to dominate a country of: 923,000 sq km, 220 million people, Over 100 ungoverned forest belts
Against this backdrop, arguing whether we need “more soldiers” is not controversial — it is basic arithmetic.
COUNTRIES SIMILAR TO NIGERIA ALL MAINTAIN LARGER FORCES
People love to quote Western tech-heavy militaries.
But those armies also deploy huge numbers of troops.
Let’s compare Nigeria with countries similar in population, landmass, or threat environment:
Pakistan (Population 240 million) has 560,000 active-duty troops and ~300,000 paramilitary. Continuous COIN for 20 years.
Egypt (110 million population) has 450,000 active troops plus
480,000 reservists to maintain Massive internal-security deployments.
Turkey (85 million population) has 440,000 active troops to battle PKK in rugged terrain AND manages regional crises.
Ethiopia (120 million population) has 200,000–250,000 active troops. Much smaller country than Nigeria yet still strains under multiple fronts.
Now compare:
Nigeria (220 million population!) has some 200,000 active-duty troops Fighting:
Boko Haram/ISWAP, Bandits, Kidnapping cartels, IPOB/ESN cells,
Oil theft networks, international peacekeeping and Border insecurity across 4,000+ km
Nigeria has double the population of Pakistan and half its military manpower. This is not sustainable. This is not rational.
And this is exactly why our troops are overstretched.
Low Troop Numbers = Prolonged Frontline Deployments
Because our forces are too few, Nigerian soldiers stay in frontline FOBs for Up to 3 years in some units. This is unheard of in professional armies. Rotations are supposed to be 4–6 months, maximum 9 months.
Small, exhausted units cannot dominate space, cannot maintain tempo, and cannot sustain morale.
Brigade Example:
Read Also:
A standard Nigerian Brigade should have ~2,500 officers and men.
But in reality — due to casualties, overstretch, insufficient recruitment, and deployments across multiple theatres — commanders often operate with far fewer.
The late Brig Gen Uba, on that tragic day, did not have anywhere close to his doctrinal manpower. His situation reflected the national problem:
We are sending under-strength units to do full-strength missions.
No amount of drones or gadgets can compensate for this manpower deficit.
THE DEBATE ABOUT TECH VS TROOPS IN NIGERIA’S CONTEXT IS A NO BRAINER
Whenever someone repeats: “Nigeria just needs technology!”
here is the honest, professional answer.
WHAT TECHNOLOGY CAN DO
A. Surveillance & Intelligence (MALE drones, Thermal cameras,
Ground sensors, SIGINT
Gives: Early warning, tracking, mapping.
But: Surveillance can only find targets — it does not secure land.
B. Precision Strike (Armed drones, Smart munitions
Gives: Neutralisation of high-value targets. But Strikes do not stabilise communities. Bandits return if no troops hold territory.
C. Mobility & Protection (MRAPs, APCs, Armoured ambulances)
These keep troops alive — but they still require troops inside them.
D. Communications (Secure radios -not whatsapp messaging!, Blue-force tracking, Real-time command systems. This iImproves coordination — but cannot patrol a forest or rescue kidnapped school girls.
WHAT TECHNOLOGY CANNOT DO
A. Technology cannot secure 923,000 sq km of Nigerian terrain.
Drones see; troops secure.
B. Tech cannot hold territory after a strike. If no soldiers move in, bandits return tomorrow morning.
C. Tech cannot stabilise communities. No drone can: Run a checkpoint, Protect markets, Engage villagers, Stop reprisal attacks,
Reassure farmers, stop cattle rustling or Rescue abducted students
D. Tech cannot enforce law or justice.
Arrests, searches, interrogations are human tasks which no technology can do.
E. Tech cannot replace HUMINT. Most breakthroughs come from:
CJTF, Hunters, Vigilantes, Market intelligence, Local chiefs Not from satellites.
So What Tech Does Nigeria Actually Need?
Not slogans. Not buzzwords.
Real, essential systems are :
Aerial ISR & Strike, TB2, Wing Loong , Company-level quadcopters,
Helicopters with night sensors, Ground Intelligence, Thermal goggles, Ground sensors, Communications, Secure radios, Blue-force tracking, Mobility & Protection, MRAPs, APCs, Armoured ambulances. Civilian/Policing Tech, ANPR cameras, GIS forest mapping, Rural CCTV, Biometrics in high-risk LGAs
These technologies are useful and support troops — BUT they do not replace them.
MY FINAL POSITION : Nigeria Needs Technology — But It Desperately Needs More Soldiers First
Our current force size is insufficient by any global COIN standard.
You cannot secure the North East, North West, and North Central with a 200,000-man military. No country on earth has defeated insurgency with gadgets alone. Quinlévan mathematics and comparator-country evidence all point to the same conclusion:
Nigeria must significantly expand its military and security forces while investing in targeted technology to enhance their effectiveness.
Technology is the eyes and brain of modern COIN.
Troops are the hands and feet.
Eyes alone cannot fight.
*Group Captain Sadeeq Shehu (rtd) was a former Spokesperson of the Nigerian Air Force
